Publications tagged: #uncertainty
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Inducing Artificial Uncertainty in Language Models
In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen challenging data is increasingly difficult for large language models trained on vast amounts of scraped data. If the model is consistently (and correctly) confident in its predictions, the uncertainty quantification method may consistently overestimate confidence on new and unfamiliar data. Finding data which exhibits enough uncertainty to train supervised uncertainty quantification methods for high-performance models may therefore be challenging, and will increase in difficulty as LLMs saturate datasets. To address this issue, we first introduce the problem of inducing artificial uncertainty in language models, then investigate methods of inducing artificial uncertainty on trivially easy data in the absence of challenging data at training time. We use probes trained to recognize artificial uncertainty on the original model, and find that these probes trained on artificial uncertainty outperform probes trained without artificial uncertainty in recognizing real uncertainty, achieving notably higher calibration on hard data with minimal loss of performance on easy data.
Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews
arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.13595, 2026
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Uncertainty Distillation: Teaching Language Models to Express Semantic Confidence
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of uncertainty to be meaningful, they should reflect the error rates at the expressed level of confidence. However, when prompted to express confidence, the error rates of current LLMs are inconsistent with their communicated confidences, highlighting the need for uncertainty quantification methods. Many prior methods calculate lexical uncertainty, estimating a model's confidence in the specific string it generated. In some cases, however, it may be more useful to estimate semantic uncertainty, or the model's confidence in the answer regardless of how it is verbalized. We propose a simple procedure, uncertainty distillation, to teach an LLM to verbalize calibrated semantic confidences. Using held-out data to map initial uncertainty estimates to meaningful probabilities, we create examples annotated with verbalized probabilities for supervised fine-tuning. We compare uncertainty distillation to several strong baselines, and find that our method yields verbalized confidences that correlate well with observed error rates.
Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews
arXiv preprint arXiv:2503.14749, 2025
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Ensemble Distillation for Structured Prediction: Calibrated, Accurate, Fast—Choose Three
Modern neural networks do not always produce well-calibrated predictions, even when trained with a proper scoring function such as cross-entropy. In classification settings, simple methods such as isotonic regression or temperature scaling may be used in conjunction with a held-out dataset to calibrate model outputs. However, extending these methods to structured prediction is not always straightforward or effective; furthermore, a held-out calibration set may not always be available. In this paper, we study ensemble distillation as a general framework for producing well-calibrated structured prediction models while avoiding the prohibitive inference-time cost of ensembles. We validate this framework on two tasks: named-entity recognition and machine translation. We find that, across both tasks, ensemble distillation produces models which retain much of, and occasionally improve upon, the performance and calibration benefits of ensembles, while only requiring a single model during test-time.
Steven Reich , David Mueller , Nicholas Andrews
Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2020