Re: Why does the Affirmative ....

[Alan Dove <ad52@columbia.edu>]

On Thu, 8 May 1997, RACE --- wrote:

> Why does the affirmative tend to win so many debates?  
> 
> Is this notion of affirmative skew as pronounced as it seems?  
> 
> What factors BESIDES broad topics account for the affirmative skew?

Here it is again, and I STILL have not seen anything close to solid
evidence that the fundamental assertion here is true.  Real numbers I've
seen posted range from 62% to 54% affirmative wins, but these are usually
based on single tournament data points, and the statistics are compiled
differently.  In one case, all rounds were tallied.  In a few others, only
elimination rounds were examined.  Since each statistical posting has been
from one tournament, different power-pairing, different size pools, and
different divisions were involved.  How does this break down when we look
only at Novice, or only at Open?  Are elimination round results really a
useful guide in claiming "affirmative skew," or should we look primarily
at preliminary rounds?  Is anyone even considering doing the analysis to
back this up?  Or are we all just going to take the "affirmative skew" as
gospel and then formulate policy based on this (possibly mistaken)
conception?

Maybe this will help.  I say the "affirmative skew" is a myth.  MYTH, I
say.  At most, there may be a slight bias for the affirmative because
less-experienced debaters have an easier time working with a pre-written
case.  I challenge anyone to prove me wrong.  Proving me wrong, in this
case, would involve a statistical analysis of AT LEAST eight tournaments,
preferably including both "regional" and "national" circuit tournaments
(though Nationals should be considered in a category by itself, I think),
broken down into % affirmative and negative wins in each division in
preliminary and elimination rounds.  Tournaments analyzed in this study
should be at least large enough to break to quarters in all divisions.
Ideally, more tournaments, representing more than one topic, would be
included (so I can't get out of it by saying "maybe it's just that the
Pollution topic sucked"), but I'll be willing to concede some possible
factual basis if someone can do this for a single season.

Everyone I know of tabs on computers now, so this shouldn't be so hard to
do.  I've repeatedly asked for a reference to back up the "affirmative
skew" hypothesis, but nobody has come forward with it.  Anyone?  Anyone?

          --Alan

__________________
Alan Dove
N3IMU
ad52@columbia.edu
http://128.59.173.136/Poliolab/Alan/Dove.html

---

References:

• Why does the Affirmative ....
• From: RACE --- <race@midusa.net>

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