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Re: [Re: Aff Bias]

On Mon, 4 Aug 1997 MWBRYANT@aol.com wrote:

> Dove and Pitelli refuse to acknowledge that there is an aff bias in debate.
> Up is down until you prove it empirically. Jamey Dumas just wrote me to
> suggest that I refer them to his statistical study that found almost 70% aff
> wins at CEDA Nats. I don't think it'll matter - I'm sure their anecdotal
> stories from local tournaments will overwhelm Jamey's effort. Who wants to
> bet that they'll now shift to indicting the methodology of the Dumas effort?
> 
> My part in this thread is over. Hey, guys, does it take an empirical study to
> conclude that debate has a diversity problem?

Wow, a tad defensive aren't we, Bear?  Actually, I would love to see
Jamey's numbers.  I will still wonder what's happening in other divisions
and at regular-season tournaments, but if the past few (or any few)
Nationals have actually had a 70% skew towards the affirmative, that would
clearly support your position.  Anybody want to send me the
reference/text/results of Jamey's analysis?  Anybody have other results
like this that they are hiding?  We're gradually starting to drag them out
of the woodwork, but it's a slow process.

Shuman posts that the skew doesn't exist in high school debate, at least
when the analysis is done on out-rounds at the past five NFL nats.  Again,
I would be interested in seeing what happens in regular-season debate, and
in prelim rounds, but at least some folks are willing to cite some actual
data now.  We have one study supporting and one study denying an
affirmative bias in policy debate.  In addition, there was a set of
results posted the last time this came up, showing an affirmative win
ratio of about 0.54, as I recall.  Does anyone know who posted this, and
what the actual numbers were?  If there is a skew, wouldn't it be
productive to know how pronounced it is, and whether or not we can
influence it with, say, topic choice or time limits?

And, of course, we have Bear's study, in which he simply states the Truth,
saving all us peons the time and effort of doing statistical analyses.  It
must be easy to get published in prestigious academic journals with a
talent like that.  

At no time did I ever "refuse to acknowledge" an affirmative bias.  I
refused to accept as gospel which the mighty Bear had claimed, and for
that crime I am attacked.  It's fascinating that Bear accuses me of
retreating behind anecdotal evidence, when this is exactly what I'm
protesting.  Bear seems to "know"  from years of "experience" that there
is an affirmative bias, and my reasoned request for some backing to that
claim gets ridiculed or derided as a diversionary tactic and a waste of
time.  After all, a couple of people have claimed they perceive it, so it
must be true, right?  In another posting, he tries to link my arguments to
those used by certain racists, which is completely out of line (and which
I find personally offensive). Let's try to have a rational discussion,
shall we?

          --Alan

__________________
Alan Dove
N3IMU
ad52@columbia.edu
http://128.59.173.136/Poliolab/Alan/Dove.html
References:
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