December 1, 2011 - Joshua Epstein

Title: Agent-Based Computational Modeling in Epidemiology and Disaster
Preparedness: From Playground to Planet

Abstract:
Following a review of classical mathematical epidemiology, Epstein will present selected applications of agent-based computational modeling to public health, across a range of hazards and scales, including: (1) a playground level infectious disease model (2) a county-level smallpox model calibrated to 20th century European outbreak data, and used to design containment strategies (3) two city-level hybrid models (of New Orleans and Los Angeles) combining high performance computational fluid dynamics and agent-based modeling to simulate/optimize evacuation dynamics given airborne toxic chemical releases (4) an analogous hybrid LA model of agents and earthquakes, (5) a 300 million agent model of the United States, used to simulate infectious disease dynamics and emergency surge capacity at national scale, and (6) The Global Epidemic Model (GEM) developed for the National Institutes of Health to study pandemic influenza transmission and containment on a planetary scale.